Why I Think Mike Huckabee Has a Chance

1.)  Republican social conservatives don't like either Giuliani or McCain, and rather than vote for a candidate they don't approve of "because he can beat Hillary," they might just withdraw into contemplation of the World To Come, stay home, and prevent him from beating Hillary. 

“I don’t see social conservatives making compromises to win in 2008,” said the Rev. Donald Wildmon, founder of the American Family Association, a conservative Christian broadcaster and advocacy group. “Social conservatives [... have] been disappointed and taken for granted by Republicans at times. I don’t think there’s any appetite for compromising core values.”

2.)  Huckabee, a Baptist minister, is broad-minded for a social conservative, countering protestations that right-wing compassion hypocritically stops at the birth canal [same link]:

In recent interviews, he has artfully tied his religious devotion to broader social concerns. For instance, on NPR last week, he said that reclaiming a nation for Christ was not a matter of proselytizing.

“It means that we would reflect what he reflected, and that is compassion and love,” Mr. Huckabee said.

Yet he was also critical of some opponents of abortion rights, suggesting that they focus too much on embryos. “I want to be concerned about making sure every child has music and art education,” he said. “There are a lot of things that, to me, are a part of my being pro-life.”

3.)  He's an appealing guy, with a fresh, palpable passion for both faith and music.

4.)  He's a fiscal conservative.

5.)  And best of all, who better to run against a Clinton than the Republicans' very own ex-Arkansas governor from Hope, who could portray himself as the anti-Bill!  The symmetry provides a marvelous marketing opportunity, given only the cheek to seize it -- don't you think?

Ironic bonus:  His wife's maiden name is McCain!  So based on that other Arkansas gov's two-for-one formula, you could vote for Huckabee and get McCain too!

As in the Democratic party, the biggest disadvantage for a second-rank candidate such as Huckabee is the front-runners' enormous advantage in cash.  But get perceived as the candidate who could heal the threatening split in the Republican party, and that could change fast.

(In our usual contrarian, fair'n'balanc't fashion, here's someone who snapped up the domain name mikehuckabee.com to try to drum up conflict-of-interest and clemency scandals about the former governor.)

Comments

[bluestaterepublican]

I'd like to point out that the person who runs that site fails to tell people that EVERY SINGLE ONE of the outrageous ethics complaints have been dismissed by the ethis panel in Arkansas...and that the new Democratic governor has said that the gov's office has every right to use the state police airplane. Etc. Etc.

[amba]

Thanks. I didn't know but I kinda figured. The website itself looked sleazy and dishonest.

[Ruth Anne]

The only problem with your theory is that Republicans have not selected a non-frontrunner candidate since Wendell Wilkie in 1940. Dems will pick a dark horse occasionally [Carter, Clinton], but Republicans never do these days. We're limited to McCain, Giuliani, or Romney, the three front-runners.

[amba]

Yeah, Ruth Anne, but it's early. Even in a horserace, the frontrunners at the first turn are not necessarily finishers.

[amba]

My point is that Huckabee is the candidate who would probably be very acceptable to the Christian Right (unlike Giuliani who's pro-choice and pro-gay rights and Romney who used to be and is Mormon to boot), yet, unlike Brownback, could also be acceptable to the rest of the party -- and maybe even some independents.

[karen]

Now all he needs is publicity. Amba, maybe you should become his publicist- lol!

I haven't even thought too much about who i'll root and vote for- i'm not that impressed that McCain decided to stump in Iowa(i think it is)as opposed to going back to DC to vote on the Resolution that opens the door to- more stall than resolve. ~sigh~

[Ruth Anne]

Everything's earlier these days. The first primary is the dollar primary and Huckabee is sucking wind. If California moves itself up to being right after Iowa and New Hampshire, it's all over for Gov. Mike. There are 50+ TV markets in that state and you have to buy time in ALL of them to be competitive. So if you don't have the dollars EARLY, you don't have a chance on the second turn.

[Kevin Tracy]

I can't believe I missed this post earlier. I credited the "front-runner" status to something I call "California Republican Syndrome" in which Republican voters compromise their values for the best chance.

I refer to the Arnold v. McClintock battle in the 2003 Recall of former Governor "Rolling Grey-Outs" Davis.

McClintock was a conservative and widely liked by the Republican voters, but they voted for the moderate Arnold instead figuring he had the best chance to win. As it turns out, polling after the election revealed that if every McClintock Republican voted for McClintock, he would have won the race and been governor.

I fear that's what's going on with Rudy's popularity. What America doesn't remember is that there was a Clinton v. Rudy Senate Race back in 2000. Not only did the Clinton Dirt Machine already pick up all it's dirt on Giuliani, but she was beating him in the polls too.

If he gets the GOP nod, he's going to run a campaign like Bush's in 2004 - "Vote for me, she'll lose the war on terror." And I don't think Americans are going to fall for that again. Giuliani is NOT electable come 2008.

www.ktracy.com