Strikes Mumbai. Westerners and the Indian economy targeted in "sophisticated, coordinated" attacks -- signature al Qaeda style. It's timed for the holiday season and the American interregnum. And the international intelligence community "did not see this coming at all."
UPDATE: That's not exactly true. They didn't see this coming, but they saw something coming -- and precisely because of the vulnerability of the interregnum.
Western intelligence services have been expecting an al-Qaeda spectacular terrorist attack in this crucial period between the end of President George Bush’s administration and the succession of Barack Obama.
Signals intelligence “chatter” in recent weeks indicated that Osama bin Laden’s terrorist organisation might be plotting an attack “to grab the headlines” before Mr Obama takes over in the White House on January 20. [...]
The multiple attacks on Westerners in Bombay last night showed all the signs of an al-Qaeda strategy — picking on vulnerable Western “soft targets” but not in a country where there would be maximum security. [...]
The terrorists deliberately sought out American and British passport holders, and according to this article, are reportedly holding about 40 British hostages.
As the unprecedented scale of the attacks became clear last night, it looked to be the most co-ordinated terrorist operation since the targeting of the Twin Towers in New York in 2001.
Bastards.
My wife and I know people who might be traveling through Mumbai this week. The odds are low, of course, but now we have to wait and worry.
Posted by: Peter Hoh | November 26, 2008 at 11:46 PM
Noplace is far away any more.
Posted by: amba | November 27, 2008 at 12:02 AM
So far intelligence officials have expected a terrorist attack coinciding with every significant event since September 11. It's meaningless. Cover-your-ass intelligence bureaucrats want desperately to be able to say, "We warned you!"
They don't know. They don't have hard intel. They have no sources inside Al Qaeda. They're reading Al Qaeda websites and listening to intercepts and guessing. Intelligence is mostly bullshit. They know almost nothing. It's straws in the wind and politically necessary ass-covering.
The public wants them to be like Mission Impossible or James Bond and I just think that's about 90% bull. So far the "intelligence community" has missed everything from Pearl Harbor to the Soviet bomb, to the Chinese bomb, to the fall of the USSR to 9/11 to the effect of invading Iraq.
They know dick about Al Qaeda. 7 years and they haven't found a giant, sick, instantly recognizable terrorist living within a few miles of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Posted by: michael Reynolds | November 27, 2008 at 01:46 AM
My wife went to high school with Ashok Kamte, who was one of the three top-level police officers to be killed in the Mumbai attacks. She remembers him as an excellent athlete.
Posted by: Peter Hoh | November 27, 2008 at 10:48 AM
"They don't know. They don't have hard intel. They have no sources inside Al Qaeda. They're reading Al Qaeda websites and listening to intercepts and guessing. Intelligence is mostly bullshit. They know almost nothing. It's straws in the wind and politically necessary ass-covering."
What is your alternative suggestion, Michael?
Posted by: karen | November 27, 2008 at 06:00 PM
It does make you think they should call it something other than "Intelligence."
Posted by: amba | November 27, 2008 at 06:56 PM
A friend of a friend was working at one of the hotels, and was mercifully able to hide until rescued. Absolutely terrifying.
Posted by: Tom Strong | November 29, 2008 at 01:59 AM
Tom, glad your friend of a friend was rescued.
None of the Americans we know who travel back and forth to India were caught up in this, at least as far as we have heard. The news did put a somber cast on our Thanksgiving, however.
The comments over at Althouse are enough to make me consider abandoning the comment threads.
Posted by: Peter Hoh | November 29, 2008 at 02:17 AM