"You Need to Be Scared. You Need to Be Concerned. And You Need to Get Your Butt Out of New Orleans."

Mayor Ray Nagin orders a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans ahead of Hurricane Gustav, which he is calling "the storm of the century -- worse than Katrina."

As I wrote over at Natural History, this is where I go to follow a hurricane.  Seablogger writes tonight:

While Gustav wavered in the Caribbean, bouncing from island to island, I was hopeful that it would not reach the US as a major hurricane. Worst case scenarios rarely come to pass. First Gustav would have to escape the bind of other weather systems and mountainous terrain; then it would have to spin through a rapid intensification phase south of Cuba; finally it would have to find a strong steering current that would bear it swiftly across the Gulf before shear or cooling waters could weaken it. All these things have happened. Now it is just a question of where the eye goes ashore.

If landfall occurs near Atchafalaya Bay or further west, the eyewall will pass safely SW of New Orleans. In that case conditions at the city should not be severe enough to breach major levees, unless they are weaker than they were before Katrina. But if landfall occurs near Grand Isle, then New Orleans will be hammered by the northeast quadrant of the storm — the strongest part. [...]

Update: 10 PM EDT: New 0000 UTC model runs have clustered on the menacing Grand Isle landfall. Only a few take the storm to SW Louisiana now. I expect the 11 PM NHC advisory will be suitably grave. New Orleans is really at risk now.

Something tickled my mind, I was trying to think what this reminded me of, and then I realized it was Osama hitting the WTC in 1993 and coming back in 2001 to finish the job.

Comments

[huxley]

Well, at least we've got Bobby Jindal on the job, instead of the useless Kathleen Blanco.

I used to live in New Orleans and I still love it but it is the most corrupt, dangerous, and poorly run city I've ever lived in.

Fingers crossed and prayers.

[PatHMV]

Let's be fair all around, huxley. Blanco wasn't terrible, in the grand scheme of things. We never had anything like Katrina hit New Orleans before. Before Katrina, even Bobby Jindal wouldn't have ordered this type of massive effort... he couldn't have, the public acceptance of this massive of an evacuation wouldn't have been there.

You're right about New Orleans, though...

[PatHMV]

My friend and I just reached Minneapolis a few hours ago, but our hearts and minds fled back to New Orleans some time along the journey today, as the course firmed up.

Hitting as bad as being predicted is not a foregone conclusion. When you read the fine print of the NOAA trackings, they tell you that the "zone of probability" means there's roughly a 60% chance of landfall in that cone.

Given the devastation which will occur if the strike does occur, massive evacuation is warranted. But it's important to note that the areas outside the zone but on the Gulf Coast also need to prepare. And when the hurricane hits, if it doesn't follow exactly the predicted track, that doesn't mean the forecasters were "wrong" and shouldn't be trusted in the future.

That said, let me say to all in South Louisiana: Get Out! Not because Nagin says so (he remains a clueless idiot), but because the risk is real, and the consequences of guessing wrong will be severe.

[Outis]

Pat, Blanco WAS terrible, and Nagin was worse. And not only had NOLA been hit before, it had been hit by worse, namely Betsy in 1965. The worst thing about Katrina is that Katrina BARELY GRAZED NOLA! The city got destroyed by the outer bands of a hurricane, not by the core.

[PatHMV]

Outis, I'm NOT going to get into it. This is about LIVES, not politics and finger-pointing. That's a WASTE OF FUCKING TIME, while half a state is evacuating. I don't care WHAT anybody thinks, NOW IS NOT THE TIME to be talking about stupid, petty fucking politics. I lived through it, I know exactly who did and didn't do what. And there's PLENTY of blame to go around, from individuals on the ground up through every level of government.

LEAVE THE POLITICS OUT OF IT. It serves NO purpose other than to rile people up while there's massive danger approaching.

PLEASE.

[Peter Hoh]

Well said, Pat. Prayers, not finger pointing, are what's appropriate.

[PatHMV]

Thank you, Peter. That means more than I can say at the moment.

[huxley]

Pat -- I disagree. Some leaders are better than others. I don't recommend finger-pointing in the middle of a crisis, but it's been three years since Katrina. There is a time, later, for such evaluation, especially since the mishandling of Katrina at the Lousiana level has been placed by many entirely on the Bush administration and it affects the current election.

Blanco's (and Nagin's) ineffectual handwringing are matters of public record. As well as their attempts to dodge and displace responsibility afterwards. Then there was Blanco's disgraceful teary press conference in the middle of the Katrina disaster. Compare her response with Bush's handling of 9-11--an even more unpredictable catastrophe then Katrina.

We can't know that Bobby Jindal would do better had he been in place for Katrina, but my bet is that he would have.