Nixon To China.

The reason why the first female and/or nonwhite president is likely to be a conservative.

Harry Stein:

Indeed, this choice could have immense long-term implications. Only yesterday there was every reason to believe that, even if McCain were to win the election, the party faced a highly uncertain future. Not only was it all-but bereft of future stars, but, more importantly, it seemed ideologically adrift. Literally overnight, those concerns appear to have vanished. Already, somewhere, there are surely relieved Republicans happily contemplating a brand new thought: Palin-Jindal in ’12.

Comments

[Simon Dodd]

I had a post a month or so back suggesting that McCain-Palin was the ideal setup to Palin-Pence '12. Great piece by Stein, too.

I think Ruth Anne spoke for many of us yesterday in saying money is on the way to McCain after this pick. For those who've been nervous - either because we thought he'd lose or because we weren't happy with the nominee, and for whichever reason weren't giving money - have been electrified.

[Melinda]

plain-spoken, gun-toting Palin is the kind of strong and independent woman who, a few short generations back, helped conquer the West.

That makes her sound like Annie Oakley.

BTW, I'd read that a few times over the past twenty years in different places--that the first minority or female president would most likely be a conservative Republican.

I've even read it from liberal pundits--the theory was that Americans are "progressive traditionalists." We like change, but we're cautious and we like it sloooooooowwwwwwwly.

Hey, better slow than never!

[wj]

What we appear to have here is a probably demonstration that "likely" and "probably" are not the same as "certainly." Yes, it was always more likely that the first minority or female President would be a conservative. Because it would be an easier sell, just like Nixon had an easier time selling recognition of the Chinese Communist government because he had such a strong reputation for opposing Communism.

But while a liberal Democrat may be a harder sell, that doesn't mean it is an impossible one. While it is a harder sell against McCain than it would have been against a number of other Republicans who could have won the nomination, it isn't an impossible one.

Circumstances alter cases, and I think that is what we are seeing here.