A "new," brief video of him praising martyrdom has just appeared. Marvelous detective work by bloggers, reported at Hot Air (yay team!), makes it out to be almost 100% certainly an outtake from a video shot in 2001. Turns out this clip has even been shown before -- in April 2002. Michael Ledeen at The Corner regards this as ""additional confirmation that [bin Laden] is dead. (If he were alive, they could do a new one, right?)" Ledeen goes on to do a nice, dismissive job of following Michael Reynolds' recommendation in the comments here. But when he sneers at the "surrender monkeys," does he include Michael Chertoff among those flattering the enemy with unwarranted shock and awe?
What do you think . . . if Osama's dead, does it make any difference? Is he the Elvis of the jihadi world, whose death, even if proven beyond a reasonable doubt, will never be believed?
Follow-up questions:
- How crucial is al-Zawahiri's organizational ability to al-Qaeda's capability to mount major attacks?
- Any geniuses coming up in the next generation?
- Can a decentralized organization manage anything more than mid-level mayhem, as in London last year (bad enough) and those disrupted since, plagued by loose lips?
UPDATE: Eteraz has a more nuanced and Islamically savvy version, speculating that al Qaeda might be setting the stage to announce Osama's "martyrdom."
One can only hope he has perished! However, the Islamic fundamentalist threat will continue until such time that saner minds prevail! One can only hope and pray that wiser, more intelligent leaders can diffuse the senseless ideology; and work for peace and the betterment of mankind.
Posted by: gail | July 15, 2007 at 08:34 PM
What they lack in geniuses, they make up for in zeal and numbers.
Posted by: Ruth Anne | July 16, 2007 at 12:13 AM
What we lack in zeal and numbers, we make up for with idiots as leaders.
Posted by: Bea Arthur | July 16, 2007 at 01:27 AM
I think Ali makes a pretty good case. And I don't think OBL's death would be irrelevant. I think he was a visionary - in more of a Castro or a Hitler way, as opposed to say, a Steve Jobs sort of way. He was in some ways an effective leader and I'm not sure Zawahiri has the charisma. The movement may splinter at the top.
Posted by: michael Reynolds | July 16, 2007 at 11:51 AM
As there has not been one piece of photographic evidence to prove that this man was alive since the Tora Bora bombings, I remain estremely dubious that he survived.
Posted by: Randy (Internet Ronin) | July 16, 2007 at 07:51 PM
I have felt Osama was dead since the Tora Bora campain.
I was listening live news during the campain and we had his position pinned down to around 100 yards. Geraldo came on in a very excited voice and shouted he had just witnessed the largest expolsion of the entire war. It was a MOAB!
After that moment we never got any chatter about "The Boss".
It was months later when a very fake superimposed video of him surfaced. If he was not killed that day he was wonded so badly he just hid out until he died from his wounds and lack of medical treatment from an infection.
In any case,He died as a result of US military action!!!!
Posted by: Charlie | July 23, 2007 at 10:28 AM
Charlie,
I do hope you're right. I have the impression -- can't pinpoint it without research I don't have time for -- that we have plausibly heard from him since then, perhaps on audio not video, but of course it could have been artfully faked -- these people are not media bumpkins.
Posted by: amba | July 23, 2007 at 11:00 AM